How to Fix the Structural Deficit

The Government's main justification for its public expenditure cuts is that there is a structural deficit in the UK's finances, which was left by the previous set of incompetent nincompoops. It's standard practice for an incoming Government to blame the previous regime for anything and everything that might be wrong with anything at all, so that's fair enough. Never mind that it's anybody's guess whether or not a Conservative Government would have done anything different in the circumstances of the last three years (Michael Howard would have been Prime Minister had they won the 2005 election...)

So what is the structural deficit? Well, it's a notional figure - 'A budget deficit that results from a fundamental imbalance in government receipts and expenditures, as opposed to one based on one-off or short-term factors', as defined by The Financial Times - but it is nevertheless an estimate based on forecasts of how the economy will operate in the long term. Not everyone agrees that there is such a thing in 'reality', or even if there is a structural deficit that it is necessarily a problem. For example, if you've got a mortgage you have a structural deficit in your household budget but it doesn't mean you're doomed to everlasting perdition. There's an article over at The Investor's Chronicle which examines the concept critically in more detail.

Any road up, we are told that the structural deficit is £178 billion and that the Government deems it essential that we clear this within five years (the lifetime if this Parliament, coincidentally or not). This is to be achieved through public expenditure cuts which involve all manner of misery and hardship and which, so far, have been focussed on welfare benefits and quangoes, and we face an era of austerity and uncertainty as Government departments look for ways to cut between 25% and 40% from their budgets.  All so that the financial markets do not lose confidence in the UK's ability to repay its loans. But there is a way to rectify the deficit without any of this talk of gloom and doom.

There was a 'Tax Gap' in the UK's finances of some £40 billion in 2007/08. Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) quote this figure in their publication Protecting Tax Revenues 2009. Basically, the Tax Gap is the difference between what HMRC expects to collect and what it actually collects, and it arises from several factors such as simple error and failure to take reasonable care, evasion, avoidance, and crime. It is safe to assume that this figure of £40 billion recurrs every year. So, you've guessed it, what we need to do is fix the Tax Gap for the next five years and, Hey Presto, we move from a structural deficit of £178 billion to a structural surplus of £22 billion! You could thus spend up to £22 billion on fixing the Tax Gap and still break even.

So there you have it. Problem solved by The Mighty Xorg.

The snag so far as the Government is concerned, however, is that this would mean reinforcing staff numbers and systems in HMRC in order to sort it out and this goes against their doctrine of reducing the 'size of government'. Another problem for the likes of Cameron and Osbourne is that it is the financial markets who are perpetrating the biggest slice of the tax evasion and avoidance, and a fair proportion of the crime. (Remember Bernie Madoff? It's not just self-employed builders dodging VAT who operate in the 'Black Economy'). Oh, and if the Government doesn't owe all this money to the financial markets any more, the financial markets' profits would be affected negatively.

Addendum: Meanwhile, you could reduce day-to-day expenditure without rendering widows and orphans homeless by scrapping Trident (£20 billion) and withdrawing from Afghanistan (£10 million per day). And save lives into the bargain. But that's just the old peacenik hippy in me talking, I suppose.

Not So Clever Trevor

Cripes, lummee and yer what?

Sir Trevor Brooking, an otherwise splendid fellow and accomplished footballer, who is now the Director of Development at the Football Association (amongst other things,) said yesterday that the FA may re-appoint Steve McLaren to the job of England manager after Fabio Capello retires. Ahem. Sir Trevor should have kept this thought to himself, I fear. All followers of the England team will be spending sleepless nights over the next two years in trepidation that this may come about.

Whilst it is understandable that the FA should want to find an English manager, besides Sir Trevor there's probably only Mr McLaren's mum thinks it should be him. I suspect Our Trev is just being an old softy because he was involved in giving Mr McLaren the job first time round after the debacle following Sven's dismissal. You will recall that the FA couldn't get any top-flight managers to take it on and McLaren was about fifth choice. Meanwhile Sven's contract meant that the FA had to continue paying him for two years afterwards, whilst Mr McLaren fumbled England's qualification for Euro 2008 - another reason why Sir Trevor should keep a low profile in the matter of choice of manager!

I need not go into the reasons why Mr McLaren should not have the job. One may as well ask why we don't re-appoint Norman Lamont as Chancellor; or Coco the Clown.

Get a Life!

On occasion, when I have been rattling on about some esoteric subject or other, or ranting about some vexing issue that nobody else is interested in, I am advised to 'Get a Life'. I believe this is intended as a form of generic putdown and abbreviated critique.

Well, over at the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography (ODNB), help for unfortunates such as myself is at hand. The ODNB is an archive of biographies of people who have, in some way, contributed to British history, politics, or society. They only feature articles on on dead people, however. But on the Home page there is a button to click on which says 'Get a life at random'. Of course, by life they mean biography, but it struck me as a groovy concept that one could merely click on a button and 'Get a Life'. So far today I have been a member of 'The Cato Street Conspiracy' - a radical group who plotted to blow up the British Cabinet in 1820, but were betrayed by a Government spy - and a 19th Century publisher, writer and editor named Charles Ollier who published works by Keats and Shelley.

Sadly for all you plebs one has to be a subscriber to take advantage of this facility, which I am by virtue of my status as a student of the highly esteemed Open University. You may be similarly institutionalisationally affilliated. Or not. Get a Life.

More Pie!

El Presidente has many talents, peace be upon her. But an essential part of her being is cooking and today she has done us proud with a Steak,Guinness and Cheese Pie prepared from a recipe by the estimable Jamie Oliver.

Served with mashed potatoes and peas.

Fairly reasonable!
Here's one she prepared earlier.

Market Forces

Apparently, we're all in this together so we've all got to make sacrifices and suffer the effects of Government austerity measures. And the International Monetary Fund approves. Depends on your outlook, I suppose, but I don't see how putting 600,000 public sector workers on the dole is going to reduce public spending. We're going to lose the taxes they pay, and we're going to have to pay them unemployment benefits. The theory is, of course, that the private sector will take up the slack and create jobs for all these unfortunate wretches. Yep. That's why they have been so busy outsourcing as many jobs as possible to India, Thailand, and so forth. So get on yer bikes, lads, and head east.

But the financial mess we're in isn't the fault of the people who are going to have to pay for it. If you recall, it all went pear-shaped because the financial markets invented new ways of creating credit, lending money to each other and to people who couldn't afford to pay it back. The bubble inevitably burst and the taxpayer had to bale out the financial markets because, we were told, we could not afford to allow 'the banks' to fail.

The Government doesn't want to raise taxes, so it borrows money from the financial markets, which is why we must have austerity measures, so that the financial markets don't lose confidence in Government Bonds. But hang on, didn't we lend them money and increase the money supply to keep them afloat? So aren't we borrowing back our own money and then paying interest on money we lent them? Meanwhile, the chaps in the financial markets continue to get paid bonuses rather than suffer the pay cuts and loss of services the rest of us are threatened with.

Communism seems to have failed, but I am not persuaded that capitalism has succeeded except for maybe the financial markets!

Golfers

I think golf is one of the most boring sports ever invented. And somehow or other it seems to take over the sensible parts of the brains of golfers and the chaps who administer the game. I once accompanied some chums of mine who are keen golfers, whilst they played. I was allowed to be an observer only - my complete lack of experience in playing golf meant I was forbidden from taking part. I only lasted for half the round - by the cringe it was tiresome and, what's more, they didn't seem very happy and seemed to do nothing but complain and moan. So I went back to the Club House and read a book. Meanwhile, it rained. But this did not deter the golfers who eventually returned wet as well as miserable and frustrated. Takes all sorts.

Any road up, I'm just listening idly to BBC Radio 5 at the moment, as I do from time to time, and they are all in a right tizz and no mistake. It seems Europe and the USA are supposed to be playing a golfing tournament known as the Ryder Cup today and over the weekend, but it's raining cats and dogs so play is impossible. So it goes. But what is mind-boggling about this affair is that the tournament is taking place in Newport, South Wales in the Autumn. Az eny fule kno, it often rains in Wales - especially in the Autumn - that's why The Powers That Be built reservoirs there to store rainwater to be piped to other parts of the UK where there is less rain. Well, dur.

A beneficial side-effect of this, however, is that the commentators on Radio 5 are having to fill in their broadcast time with something or other and it's all getting a tad bizarre. We've just had a discussion about 'dog pedometers' and whether or not a dog finds it more difficult to run uphill than a human does. And John Inverdale has asked listeners in Gleneagles to let him know if it's raining there - because the tournament is to be held in Gleneagles in four years' time. When it might or might not be raining.

Alfred E Neuman: It's A Gas!

I am indebted to my esteemed former colleague The Great Devereaux who has reminded me of this classic recording from 1963 by The Usual Bunch of Idiots at MAD magazine (by the time it reached the antipodes the clock had ticked on to 1965). The official site for MAD is here, but there's loads of fansites worth looking at, and more Mad recordings at You Tube.

 

100 Club

Old farts and musos in general will be alarmed and depressed to learn that the 100 Club in Oxford Street is scheduled to close at the end of the year. The owner says the club has been losing £100K per year for the last three years mainly because of a 45% rent increase in 2007, and increases in taxes and business rates meanwhile.

The 100 Club is really quite grotty, run down and squalid. But it has atmosphere (and not just the one you can smell). The owner's policy has always been to encourage originality and not to aim for the 'corporate market' i.e. the over-fed executives on expenses who can afford to pay £40 smackers for a bottle of wine and £25 quid on burger and chips. Admission prices are kept low and the place is fairly relaxed in matters of dress and decorum. So I guess you don't make much money that way, even though the venue is successful, well-attended and musicians want to play there.

The roll-call of luminaries to have played the 100 Club is impressive. Not only has our Phil played there with his former band Hanzo, but so too have Humphrey Lyttleton, The Rolling Stones, B B King, Eric Clapton, The Clash, and many more. It'll be a shame if it closes down and the world loses such a prestigious and independent venue. But so it goes. Maybe Mick Jagger could shell out some of his spare cash and buy a share in the business. £100K a year is not much to him - he probably spends more on having his hair done.

Earl Hooker

Older readers may recall me droning on once before about Old Blues Men being ripped off by various herberts who then go on to make millions whilst the rippee dies an early death. One such is  Earl Hooker who recorded a tune called 'Blue Guitar' in May 1961 - he was messing around in the studio without knowing the tape was running and his astute record boss subsequently issued it as a single. It was a 'hit' on yer Chicago blues scene and so Muddy Waters over-dubbed vocals on to it, lyrics by Willie Dixon, and it became 'You Shook Me' which was then covered by Led Zeppelin; who strangled it to death with Robert Plant's singing and got generally pompous about it.

The intriguing aspect of all this ripping offage is that for the Muddy Waters record and Led Zeppelin, songwriting credit is given to Willie Dixon - and he is the bloke who spearheaded the campaign to get yer Old Blues Men credited (and paid) when they were ripped off by the music biz in general. A case of the rippee ripping? Any road up, here's Earl Hooker's original:

Notes:
Earl Hooker died from TB aged 41 in a sanatorium, a year after Led Zeppelin's first LP was released.
Earl Hooker used a twin-necked guitar.
Robert Plant now does country & western.

Not Long Left Now...

Ho hum.

According to some anonymous forecaster at The Latter Rain, the World is going to be destroyed by God on 21 October 2011. He reckons this will be preceded by 'The Rapture' on 21 May 2011, so if you want to be saved you'd better get your skates on. (The Rapture is when, he claims, all those who are to be saved will be transported to Heaven. Any road up, only 240 days to go!)

This chap is not the first to predict The End, but you'd think he'd have figured by the experience of previous doom merchants that it's always a bit dodgy to actually put a date on it because when nothing happens, you'll look a bit daft. As well as sounding daft, as at present. I have attempted to read some of this piffle but I've given up. Phew - it beats me why a God would make all this business so darn complicated.

As I understand it, 'The Latter Rain' movement is a kind of unstructured extremist Pentecostal agglomeration, and it overlaps with the Mormons in some way although separate from them. The movement seems to have occasional flurries of activity when adherents take it up, but then it seems to fade away. Late 19th century, mid-20th century, and now early 21st century.

I wonder if they've checked this out with Paul The Octopus?

The Pope Has Landed

Herr Obergruppenfuhrer Der Benedict von Pontif has arrived and, so far, has not excommunicated anyone so that's a relief. He says he's a bit worried by 'aggressive secularism' but then some of us are a bit worried by 'agressive religion' so maybe we can agree on a kind of uneasy truce at least, and avoid any unpleasantness. I appreciate Herr Pope acknowledging British tolerance of differing beliefs and the fact that Britain did a fair bit in opposing the Nazis. It's a shame we can't say the same about The Vatican whose record of religious tolerance is not a good one, whose status as an independent state was established by the fascist government of Mussolini, and whose former leader Pius the Nth negotiated a 'Concordat', or non-agression treaty, with Adolf Hitler.

Reading

“Anyway, poetry is not the most important thing in life, is it? Frankly, I'd much rather lie in a hot bath sucking boiled sweets and reading Agatha Christie, which is just exactly what I intend to do as soon as I get home.” -- Dylan Thomas

I've never really got into poetry either, Dylan me old china. I've made a couple of attempts and I do sometimes come across the odd poem that strikes me, but it's not something I sit and read very much for very long. I've got a handout somewhere here from a tutorial a while back which might be useful so perhaps I'll get round to it shortly.

Meanwhile, at the moment I'm reading two books concurrently:

'The Big Knockover and Other Stories' by Dashiell Hammett

A collection of short stories, written in the 1920s,  from the author of The Maltese Falcon, which likewise feature hard-boiled, flawed but basically decent private detectives outwitting the low-life and the police.

'The Essential Tales of Chekhov' by Anton Chekhov

Yer man Chekhov wrote over two hundred short stories and this book contains twenty of them, selected by some dude called Richard Ford. Written in the 1880s and 1890s. Chekhov was amongst the writers who defined the modern short story, and a particular feature of his stuff is that they do not necessarily have a resolution and they often end in misery for all the protagonists. The narrative kind of generates a feeling or oblique reflection on life or moral values rather than a plot.

Otherwise, I'm all in favour of soaking in the bath although I'm not all that keen on boiled sweets. I'm more of a whisky and soda person.

Another of Life's Great Imponderables

Most houses, flats, condominiums, and even air-raid shelters, come equipped with coat hooks and cupboards. Why is it then that so many people, particularly associates of the Xorg Collective, never hang their coats up or put their shoes way? Some even litter their clothing all over the floor in apparent disarray, regardless of its relative state of cleanliness or otherwise. It's a mystery to me. All outer clothing such as coats and jackets, moreover, comes with a little loop sown into the collar to facillitate the hanging up thereof on the aforementioned hook - of which there are eight in Xorg HQ's hallway, vestibule, foyer, call-it-what-you-will. One does not object to the temporary and occasional deposit of a jumper or cardigan on the back of a chair. But after three days, I reckon you're taking the mickey. Likewise the layers of clothing detritus on the banister at the foot of the stairs - the coat hooks are less than two metres away, ferchris'sakes! Of particular annoyance is the practice of leaving shoes in the doorway or at the bottom of the stairs where they will provide optimal obstruction potential. Is this deliberate? The shoe cupboard is easily accessible, just by the coat hooks.

Nothing

Nothing can be a bit of a difficult concept. Nothing really matters, according to Mr Mercury, and according to Mr Lennon, Nothing Is Real. And not everyone can even agree on what to call it. If you're playing cricket you can be out for naught or, alternatively, a duck. Nothing is Love in tennis, but in football it is Nil. If you happen to be a shepherd but you have no sheep, would you still be a shepherd? Which brings us to the problem of counting nothing. Headaches all round, because there has to something between +1 and -1, doesn't there? (We know that there is such a thing as a negative number in the so-called real world because the banks, amongst others, tell us so. If you draw out more money than you pay in, then you are in debt).

So we have established the concept of Zero, Nothing, Nil etc.

Meanwhile, if you divide 1 by 1, you get 1. One goes into one once. So how many times does nothing go into nothing? Once. So 1 = 1. No problem there. So 1 over 1 equals, and 0 over 0 equals 1. Therefore, 0 = 1.

Hold up! That can't be right...

Shadow Move

In 1963, when The Beatles were making their big breakthrough, The Shadows actually sold more records than the Fab Four. But by 1965, things were different and The Shads were being left behind a bit by not only The Fabs but also The Stones, The Yardbirds and so forth. So The Shadows figured they'd better get with it and ventured into slightly more dangerous territory (for them). 'Don't Make My Baby Blue' was part of the results; vocals, and note the distorted lead guitar as opposed to Hank's previously clean sound and an almost-bluesey lead break. Not a bad record but sadly The Shadows remained forever tainted by association with Sir Clifford of Richard and none of us were convinced that they could hack it alongside the likes of Jeff Beck, Eric Clapton and Jimi Hendrix. And, indeed, they couldn't. But I still like them for being The Shadows.

The Move subsequently covered this song on their album 'Shazam', showing how to get heavy with a decent pop song. This version fulfils the criteria for cover versions as set out in The Xorg Collective Concordat Concerning Covers.

What A Waste of Money

That perpetrator of various misdeeds, His Unholiness The Pope Himself, is shortly to visit the UK. It is not clear why he is visiting other than to carry out some mumbo-jumbo beatifying the corpse of a long-dead Anglican convert of dubious sexuality, but it seems that the British taxpayer is paying for the visit to the tune of £10 million smackers plus policing costs. The Catholic Church in the UK is paying a similar amount which they are raising by selling souvenirs and charging Believers to attend the events. The Vatican doesn't look like it is short of cash so it makes you wonder, especially when not many people seem all that bothered about His Presence Being Among Us. A poll conducted by ComRes for the Theos theology 'Thinktank' indicates most of us are generally apathetic about the visit and object to paying for it. Another poll by Ipsos MORI, on behalf of the Catholic magazine The Tablet,  confirms the general level of apathy although Catholics, unsurprisingly, seem to be in favour. 

I presume the justification is that the visit is being treated as an 'Official State Occasion' rather than a Pastoral visit but I fail to see what benefit the taxpayer will get from shelling out £10 million quids at a time when public services are being cut back somewhat arbitrarily and ruthlessly.

Spontaneous God

Stephen Hawking has set the cat among the pigeons by theorising in his new book that 'God' was not necessary and that the Universe would have created itself anyway. He doesn't actually say that 'God' doesn't exist but no doubt religious types will interpret it that way. Expect a fatwah any day now from either or both The Ayatollah or The Pope.

Notwithstanding that the concept of 'God' gives the Universe (and humanity in particular) purpose beyond itself, God by definition can't have been created by someone or something else. So, either 'God' created himself and the Universe from nothing or the Universe created itself from nothing. Either belief seems paradoxical to me; I suspect nothing was created.

Cover Versions

We were listening to David Bowie's cover of 'I Feel Free' which is on the Black Tie, White Noise album, and reached the unanimous view that he shouldn't have bothered. Bowie perpetrated another howler when he covered 'God Only Knows' on the Tonight album. As far as the Xorg Collective is concerned, cover versions should add something to the original rather than diminish it. Here's my favourite example of How To Get It Right; The Vanilla Fudge cover The Supremes.

Mysteries of The Premier League Part 38: Titus Bramble

Here we are in the second week of the season and there have been a few changes, while some things stay the same. Promotions, demotions, 'early contenders for goal of the season', 'bad defending whatever way you look at it', weird choices for away strip (Everton), und so weiter etc. Chelsea off to a flyer, Arsenal looking promising, Spurs under-achieving. But still there remains The Unexplained Presence of Titus Bramble In A Premier League Team. Someone once said of him, somewhat charitably, "Titus's occasional flash of brilliance is heavily outweighed by the total inability to think before attempting what inevitably turns into a hashed clearance, a mistimed tackle, an own goal or a penalty for the opposition." Very occasional flashes, well, maybe once.

Imagine my surprise to find him lining up for Sunderland. They signed him for an undisclosed fee from Wigan - it is not known in which direction the fee went. Relegation beckons.

Miles Davis

My eldest daughter once said to me, a few years ago, "Good grief, Dad, how many Miles Davis albums can a man have?" She had just bought me 'Sketches of Spain'  on CD as a surprise present only to find that I already had it and when I pointed to the Miles Davis section on the shelf she emitted the above query.

Now, thanks to my esteemed friend Lord Trousers von Crosby-on-Sea, I have added a few more so that the provisional total is now fifty two - I might have missed out some on LP that lurk in the recesses of the cupboard under the stairs, yet to be reacquired in digitalissimo formattageness. When I get round to tidying up we shall see what we shall see. Of course, there are probably a couple of hundred Miles Davis albums out there but some of these will be rejiggled compilations and the like rather than discreet albums as such, m'lud. 

Currently listening to 'Steamin with the Miles Davis Quintet'.